Eine Mehrheit der ÖsterreicherInnen geht davon aus, dass Großbritannien auch weiter EU-Mitglied bleibt. Sollte es dennoch zu einem Brexit kommen, so würden sowohl das Vereinigte Königreich als auch die EU an globaler Bedeutung verlieren. Zudem wären, so die österreichische Einschätzung, weitere Austritte aus der Union durchaus wahrscheinlich. Zu diesen Ergebnissen kommt eine aktuelle Umfrage der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Europapolitik (ÖGfE).
54 Prozent der befragten ÖsterreicherInnen glauben, dass eine Mehrheit der BritInnen am 23. Juni für den Verbleib Großbritanniens in der EU stimmen wird. 25 Prozent rechnen mit einem EU-Austritt. Ein Fünftel der Befragten zieht es vor, den Ausgang des Referendums nicht zu prognostizieren.
Ein Brexit würde, so 64 Prozent der Befragten, das weltpolitische Gewicht der EU verringern. 10 Prozent glauben, dass der weltpolitische Einfluss der EU steigen würde. Ein Fünftel geht davon aus, dass ein Brexit keine nennenswerten Folgen mit sich bringen würde.
56 Prozent nehmen an, dass auch das globale Standing des Vereinigten Königreichs unter einem Brexit leiden würde. 15 Prozent rechnen hingegen damit, dass der weltweite Einfluss Großbritanniens steigen würde. Ebenso viele sehen weder positive noch negative Auswirkungen.
Sollte das Vereinigte Königreich sich zu einem EU-Austritt entschließen, glauben 54 Prozent der Befragten, dass sich weitere Länder diesem Votum anschließen könnten. Für 32 Prozent wäre ein solches Szenario eher unwahrscheinlich. 14 Prozent können oder wollen etwaige Folgen nicht abschätzen.
Die aktuelle Umfrage wurde von der Sozialwissenschaftlichen Studiengesellschaft vom 6. bis 9. Juni 2016 im Auftrag der ÖGfE durchgeführt. Befragt wurden österreichweit 559 Personen per Telefon (repräsentativ für die österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahre/Gewichtung nach Geschlecht, Alter und Bildung). (Rest auf 100 Prozent = „weiß nicht/Keine Angabe“). Maximale Schwankungsbreite ca. +/- 4,3 Prozent.
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